Buying a House in “Military City USA”
Buying a house in “Military City USA” can feel like speed-dating: every weekend a fresh batch of listings, flashy incentives, lots of competition, and a nagging fear you’ll miss “the one.” Slow down. Breathe. Let’s zoom out and figure out when the odds line up in your favor—because in San Antonio, timing isn’t everything, but it’s darn close.
First, a Quick Pulse Check on San Antonio
San Antonio keeps swelling—nearly 100 new residents every single day. They come for cybersecurity jobs at Port SA, medical research in the South Texas Medical Center, and, yes, the margaritas on the River Walk. Median home prices sit roughly 20 % below Austin’s yet wages keep rising, which means buyers still see value here. Inventory? Up about 14 % year-over-year, thanks to national builders dropping entire subdivisions on the far West Side and along I-35 toward New Braunfels. Yet resale homes inside Loop 410 move in under 25 days when they’re priced right. Translation: you need a plan.
Why Seasonality Even Matters in the Alamo City
You already know house prices fluctuate. What you may not know is how tightly those swings tie to our local quirks: military PCS rotations, Fiesta in April, triple-digit heat that melts open-house balloons by noon. Each one pushes sellers or buyers to act—or wait.
So let’s break the calendar into chunks and call out what really happens on the ground.
Winter: December Through Early February
The Good Stuff
- Rock-bottom prices. MLS data from 2018-2023 shows the median sale price dips 3-5 % in December. Not headline-grabbing, but on a $350k home that’s ten to seventeen grand you keep in your pocket.
- Fewer bidding wars. Families nest. Casual lookie-loos stay home. That leaves motivated sellers staring at empty guest rooms and heating bills.
- Builders closing books. National builders slash base prices or throw in closing-cost credits to hit year-end quotas. In 2022, one Northwest Side builder offered a free refrigerator, blinds, and 2-1 rate buydown—pure gravy for winter shoppers.
The Not-So-Great
- Scarce inventory. Listings dip by roughly 20 %. You’ll scroll a lot of “pending” badges.
- Holiday chaos. Appraisers, title offices, even movers take time off. A 30-day close might turn into 45.
- Curb appeal suffers. Bermuda grass goes tan, oak trees drop leaves, and you may feel unsure about a home’s true vibe.
Tips if You Want That December Deal
- Get underwritten approval before Thanksgiving.
- Tour vacant homes at lunch—sunlight helps.
- Offer flexibility on the closing date; some sellers want their cash in January for tax reasons.
Spring: March Through Mid-May
Why Everyone Loves It
Inventory balloons as soon as Fiesta posters hit storefronts. Sellers list homes in time to coordinate with summer school breaks, so selection spikes 30 % compared with winter. Interest rates historically tick downward in March as lenders chase volume. Plus, lawns green up and Indian paintbrush flowers pop along Loop 1604. You feel good. Sellers feel good.
The Flip Side
Feeling good costs money. March and April deliver the highest average sale-to-list ratios—103 % last year inside Loop 410. Multiple-offer shootouts get real. Cash buyers from California swoop in after SXSW. And if you’re banking on USDA or VA financing, your contingent offer may slide to the bottom of the stack.
Make Spring Work for You
- Shop midweek. Thursday morning showings face less frenzy than Saturday showings.
- Hunt price reductions on listings that “tested” the market too high right after Spring Break.
- Lock your rate before the Fed’s late-spring meeting; even a quarter-point bump on a $400k mortgage is $60 a month forever.
Summer: Late May Through August
Upside
School’s out, relocation packages roll in, and daylight stretches past 8:30 p.m., letting you tour three neighborhoods after work. If you must sell a current home and buy another, this stretch syncs both timelines nicely. You’ll also run the A/C on your walk-through—handy for spotting weak compressors before they become your problem.
Downside
Heat. Ninety-eight degrees plus Gulf humidity turns a roof inspection into a survival sport. Sellers know traffic is high, so they often hold “coming soon” teasers to stir FOMO. Average days on market dips to about 26, the year’s lowest. Prices crest in July, roughly 4 % above the winter trough.
A Few Smart Summer Moves
- Schedule showings early morning and re-visit at 4 p.m. to gauge west-facing heat.
- Negotiate for a home-warranty credit that covers HVAC—even if you think warranties are meh.
- If your lease ends July 31, target a June close; movers book solid by mid-July.
Fall: September Through Mid-November
Sneaky Advantages
Military transfers spike again on October 1 fiscal budgets, meaning incoming families need homes fast while outgoing ones list quickly. Inventory remains decent yet competition cools once school starts. Sellers who overshot spring get realistic. Price reductions jump 15 % in the first two weeks of October.
Possible Snares
Storm season. Tropical systems can dump rain and delay inspections. Insurance carriers sometimes freeze new policies for 48-72 hours when a storm sits in the Gulf, wrecking closing timelines. Also, daylight shrinks; after-work viewings feel rushed.
How to Play Fall Right
- Watch for homes listed the week after Labor Day—seller motivation is often high.
- Use inspection findings (foundation settling, minor roof wear) to grab closing credits; sellers prefer concessions over price cuts that reset their “days on market” clock.
- Hint at a 30-day close so families can settle by Thanksgiving.
Beyond the Seasons: Five Hyper-Local Variables No Algorithm Tells You
- Property-tax valuations post in April: Bexar County sends notices that month. If a home’s assessed value jumps 25 %, some owners bail rather than fight. Watch MLS in May for that group.
- Fiesta Timing: A late Fiesta (end of April) pulls short-term rentals off the market while owners chase parade revenue. Once confetti clears, those houses often list. Keep your eye on King William and Tobin Hill inventory spike in early May.
- UTSA’s Academic Calendar: Northwest neighborhoods—Alamo Ranch, Bricewood—mirror student and faculty moves. A wave of rental investors lists homes in August right after securing 12-month leases. If you’re okay being a landlord for eleven months, pick one up and take over the lease at closing, then move in the following summer.
- CPS Energy Rebates: San Antonio’s municipal utility drops HVAC rebates in late summer. Buyers who close right after Labor Day can claim $100-$450 per new system. Handy if the home you’re eyeing needs an upgrade.
- Military Housing Allowance Updates: BAH rates revise every January 1. When they rise sharply—as they did in 2023—sellers near Lackland and Randolph field higher-budget buyers by February. Study the Pentagon’s projections; it hints at incoming demand.
Quick-Glance Scorecard: Season vs. Your Priorities
| Your Main Goal | Winter | Spring | Summer | Fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest Price | 🏆 | ❓ | ❌ | 😊 |
| Widest Selection | ⚠️ | 🏆 | 😊 | 🙂 |
| Fastest Close | 😊 | ⚠️ | ❌ | 🏆 |
| Kid School Schedule | ❌ | 🙂 | 🏆 | ❓ |
| Avoid Major Heat | 🏆 | 🙂 | ❌ | 😊 |
The Mortgage-Rate Wild Card
Rates float above everything. A half-point drop can eclipse seasonal price changes. Example: a $350,000 mortgage at 6.5 % vs. 7.0 % shifts your payment about $110 a month. So if the Fed signals cuts in September, grabbing a fall listing might beat waiting for winter’s lower sticker price.
Lesson? Pair seasonality with rate watching. Don’t pick one or the other.
So, When Is the “Best Time” Really?
If you crave the absolute cheapest closing number, December still wins, year after year. The data is boringly consistent. But if you’re picky about schools, yard size, or architectural style, early spring’s inventory blossom outweighs the few extra bucks. And if you hate bidding wars or blazing heat, circle October.
The point: “Best” depends on what keeps you up at night—payment size, choice, or sanity.
Three Moves to Lock in Your Advantage—No Matter the Month
- Get Fully Underwritten, Not Just Pre-Qualified: Underwriting upfront turns you into a near-cash buyer. Listing agents notice.
- Build a Seven-Day Offer Window: Tell your agent to ping you daily with new listings, but only tour once a week. You’ll see houses back-to-back, compare clearly, and pull the trigger with confidence.
- Use Data Beyond the MLS: Scrape building-permit filings, HOA violation lists, or even probate notices. Sellers in those buckets often decide to list off-market first. Your agent should have those hooks already.
Ready to Make a Move?
You’ve now got the calendar decoded, plus a few insider angles Zillow won’t hand you. The next step? Nail down what “best” means for your family. Cheapest? Stress-free? Quick relocation? Circle your priority, eye the right month, and start scouting a lender who can lock your rate the instant the market blinks.
San Antonio won’t stop growing. Neither will your options. So pick your moment, then pounce. And hey, when you’re grilling fajitas on that new back patio in January because you scored the winter deal of the decade, drop me a note—I’ll bring the salsa.
